Georgia’s protests: One cause, two countries
Georgia’s fight to save its pro-West orientation is just part of a larger trend in the South Caucasus as all three countries grapple with the role of Russia in the region. Chai Khana asked security expert Davit Bragvadze to explain how ongoing protests in Armenia and Georgia reflect the larger fight for political dominance in the South Caucasus.
I visit Armenia frequently—so much so that when I arrive in Yerevan, I no longer feel like a stranger. This May, I visited twice in quick succession and witnessed how politics in Georgia reflect and reverberate Armenia’s own struggles.
On my first visit, I focused on observing the city. Yerevan appeared to have improved significantly. There are fewer Russian signs, and the staff in restaurants and cafes speak more English than before, especially the younger generation—Gen-Z. In our region, it's common for two people who both speak better English to still choose Russian for their conversations. However, struck me that Russian was gradually losing its status as the lingua franca in the South Caucasus.
I returned to Armenia a week later. My visit coincided with a challenging period for both countries. In Georgia, demonstrations raged against the so-called Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence—more often referred to as the Russian law. In Armenia, there were protests against the government, though they were of a completely different nature and content. A prime example of this came from a local expert on Armenian television: “Look at the protest in Georgia. Young people are rallying against Russia, waving their national and European flags. In contrast, here in our country, a bishop carrying a lamb leads demonstrations to strengthen Russia's position.”
Since the 2018 Velvet Revolution, Armenia has been slowly trying to free itself from Russian influence and move closer to Europe. However, in 2020, it found itself involved in the severe conflict in Karabakh, where Azerbaijan achieved a convincing victory. The Kremlin immediately tried to exploit the situation to overthrow Nikol Pashinyan’s government and firmly anchor Armenia in the Russian orbit. However, Pashinyan navigated this acute political crisis and secured a convincing victory in the snap elections. Following this, he not only maintained his course but also intensified efforts to bring Armenia closer to the West.
Certainly, it will not be easy for Armenia to break free of Russian influence. But there is progress. According to the latest public opinion polls, the people of Armenia now view Russia as the greatest threat to national security after Azerbaijan and Turkey. This marks a significant shift from just a few years ago when Russia was widely regarded as Armenia's main defender, friend, and ally. The Armenian population's disappointment in Russia has deepened, particularly due to the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) lack of response during the 2021 clashes. The Russian-led CSTO, was obligated to defend Armenia thanks to its fourth article—mirroring NATO's famous fifth article. But it failed to do so. Last year, the public’s disappointment in Russia grew: After Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive in 2023, Karabakh Armenians, who had relied on Russian peacekeepers for security, were forced to abandon their homes.
Armenia is now at a pivotal moment. Moscow has tried to use the challenges facing Armenia to derail the Pashinyan government and its push to the West. After the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Moscow backed the opposition—members of the previous government—in an attempt to overthrow Pashinyan. However, this effort failed. Despite the lost war, the Armenian population did not support the return of the extremely corrupt and openly pro-Russian clan to power. Moscow's gambit was easily rejected because no one in Armenia wanted to return to the dark, corrupt past.
Today, trust in the opposition remains low: the current protests are led by an archbishop from the Apostical Church of Armenia, not a politician. This is a particularly interesting development. In the 19th century, Russia leveraged the Armenian Church as its main ally to establish a colonial regime. Today, the highest levels of the Armenian Church, including Catholicos Garegin II, maintain close ties with Russia.
However, we should not assume that the church holds as much power in Armenia as it does in Georgia. Armenians take great pride in their faith and their church, viewing themselves as descendants of the ancient church and the first Christian nation in the world, having declared Christianity as the state religion in 301 AD. But Armenians generally do not have a positive attitude towards their church leadership. While Russia clearly influences the leaders of the Armenian Church, this influence is much less pronounced among the congregation.
The use of the church against Pashinyan clearly illustrates that the Kremlin lacks resources to alter Armenia's current policy. The leader of the protest, Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan of Tavush, may have been chosen for two reasons. First, Bishop Galstanyan has a good reputation among the leaders of the Armenian Church. He is just 53 and he was educated in Great Britain. Second, Tavush is the region where the border with Azerbaijan is currently being delineated, and where Armenia is withdrawing from territories it lost in 2020. Additionally, it is worth noting that Nikol Pashinyan himself comes from Tavush. Previously, Pashinyan faced accusations of neglecting Karabakh due to his origins, suggesting he didn't care about the region. Now, there are claims that he is also indifferent to his native land, alleging he is ceding territory to Azerbaijan.
The fate of the protest depends as much on Azerbaijan as it does on Pashinyan, Russia, and the Armenian Church. If Azerbaijan withdraws from the territories it has agreed to leave in the next stage of delimitation and demarcation, then this protest is likely to yield no significant results. If it does not, it is difficult to predict how much momentum the protest might gain. In any case, Pashinyan's opposition remains weak, and those currently attending anti-Pashinyan rallies may not necessarily support the opposition in an election. The idea of replacing the political class in Armenia with the clerical elite or the Iranization of the country is difficult to imagine, even theoretically.
All of this clearly demonstrates that Armenia faces a challenging path ahead. Despite the desire to reduce Russian influence and rapidly move closer to Europe, this will not depend solely on Pashinyan's wishes and efforts. Additionally, our neighbors now face another conundrum that they cannot influence at all, which may further undermine their European aspirations.
I refer, of course, to ongoing developments in Georgia. The Armenian authorities and society are keenly interested in the success of Georgia's European path. This interest is driven not only by the historical ties between our nations and the friendly relations between the two modern states but also by purely pragmatic considerations.
Several of my Armenian colleagues have said that Nikol Pashinyan personally lobbied European leaders to grant Georgia candidate status, recognizing its importance for Armenia as well. How do they know this? It turns out that the Prime Minister of Armenia frequently meets with experts for consultations on different issues, including some who are critical of his policies on various matters.
My Armenian colleagues are anxiously following the ongoing events in Tbilisi and supporting Georgia's civil society. They believe that civil society in Georgia has always been stronger than in Armenia, in part due to Armenia’s historical dependence on Russia: Moscow has never been interested in strengthening civil society. Considering that Russia has systematically dismantled civil society within its own borders, it is unrealistic to expect it to support such strengthening elsewhere.
Armenian civil society is now following the path that Georgia has already taken. However, we Georgians suddenly face the risk of losing in a single day the progress that took decades to achieve. The new law, fittingly referred to as a Russian law, aims to change Georgia's foreign policy direction while also attempting to dismantle civil society. Armenian expert circles have also recognized this.
The outcome of the ongoing developments in Georgia will significantly influence Armenia's future. If Georgian civil society is defeated in this struggle and the government continues to alter the country's foreign policy, it will directly affect Armenia's prospects for European integration. For a country already facing a challenging geopolitical environment, a shift away from the traditional path of its only neighbor with European aspirations would be catastrophic. If Georgian society succeeds in this struggle, it will preserve Armenia's chance to break free from Russian influence and continue its path toward Europe. Why would this not be possible if events unfold differently? This likely needs little explanation. Simply look at the map, and in the worst-case scenario, consider that Georgia has returned to the Russian orbit.
The current events unfolding in Tbilisi and other Georgian cities can lead to only two possible outcomes. Either the government will succeed in steering the country back into the Russian orbit, or society will prevail, preserving Georgia's European future. In the first scenario, the Georgian government will not only jeopardize the future of its own country and society but will also, perhaps unintentionally or even deliberately, place its neighboring country and its people in a nearly hopeless situation.
On the other hand, Georgian society now has a historic opportunity—one that rarely occurs—where the outcome of their struggle could determine the fate of two nations. The Georgians protesting in the streets are fighting not only for the future of their own country but also to accelerate Russia's expulsion from the entire region. While not everyone may realize it, this struggle holds a much greater significance than it might initially appear. If Georgia stays on its current European path, it gives Armenia a chance to do the same, even though Armenia has a long journey ahead. Otherwise, both countries face the same future: becoming part of the Russian world.
The situation is paradoxical. In Georgia, with Russian support, the government is standing against its own people, ignoring the will of more than 80 percent of the population. In contrast, in Armenia, Russian-backed forces are challenging the government. In Georgia, the protesters must prevail, whereas in Armenia, the government needs to endure. Despite Armenia's future resting on our fight, our goals are clear: stop this law from taking effect and hold democratic elections in the fall.
Armenia's struggle is more multifaceted. The government needs to finalize the border delimitation and demarcation with Azerbaijan, a challenging task regardless of current dynamics. They must secure a fair peace treaty with Azerbaijan, agree on opening transport corridors without compromising sovereignty, and start normalizing relations with Turkey. Furthermore, they need to gradually align with Europe, undertaking a long and difficult process of reforms and integration, while resisting pressure from Russia and radical groups within the country.
You might agree that this all appears much more challenging than overturning one law and ensuring a fair election. That's why this fight is so important. It not only safeguards our own future but also preserves the hope of a prosperous future for the people with whom we have shared this region for nearly three millennia.
Davit Bragvadze is an analyst and expert on national security. From 2016 to 2018, he served as the head of the analytical department at the National Security Council. He is currently an invited lecturer at the Black Sea International University and Caucasus University, where he teaches courses on the history of international relations, Georgian-Russian relations, and national security policy.
The opinions expressed in this text are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of this publication.
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